The president is keeping a distance from some Republican candidates and signaling some pessimism about next Tuesday’s elections.
President Donald Trump has done little public campaigning in marqueeraces where Democrats are running heavily against him, keeping a distance from some Republican candidates and signaling some pessimism about next Tuesday’s elections.
In Virginia, Trump has reserved his explicit support for just one statewide candidate — Attorney General Jason Miyares, who is viewed as the likeliest candidate on the GOP ticket to win. Trump has not officially endorsed the nominee for governor, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, who is trailing in the polls.
In New Jersey, Trump has limited his engagement on behalf of Jack Ciattarelli, the unusually competitive GOP nominee for governor, to an endorsement and a telerally. There is some debate in the party over how widely visible a surrogate Trump should be in a state where he made gains in 2024 but has faced a backlash over his agenda.
In California, where Democrats are increasingly hopeful they will win a vote to redraw congressional districts, Trump has mostly hung back and this week sought to preemptively discredit the vote, without presenting evidence for his claims. Trump’s team worked with GOP allies to raise $25 million for voter turnout, but Republicans’ data suggested Proposition 50 was likely to pass, which made the Trump political team wary of more spending, according to a person familiar with their thinking who, like some others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal conversations.
Trump has long shown an eagerness to put his stamp on what he says as major accomplishments, including electoral victories, at times jumping in at the last minute to claim credit. While he has been known to rapidly step up his involvement as he sees fit and could shift his stance, Trump has no plans to rally voters in person in New Jersey or Virginia in the final days of the race, according to a senior White House official.
“I don’t think he likes to back candidates he knows are going to lose,” said Chris Saxman, a former GOP state delegate in Virginia who ran Earle-Sears’s transition team after she was elected lieutenant governor in 2021.
Tuesday’s elections, happening in mostly Democratic-leaning states, will provide one of the most concrete snapshots yet of voter attitudes about Trump’s second term. They are also expected to inform both parties’ strategies headed into next year’s midterms.
The president is keeping a light footprint as Republican campaigns are careful in how they talk about him. Polls show Trump’s approval ratings have dropped since he took office again, even as he is still popular among many loyal supporters GOP candidates need to turn out when he is not on the ballot. Some Trump allies are skeptical that the base that came out for Trump in presidential elections will be there Tuesday.
Tuesday’s elections, happening in mostly Democratic-leaning states, will provide one of the most concrete snapshots yet of voter attitudes about Trump’s second term. They are also expected to inform both parties’ strategies headed into next year’s midterms.
The president is keeping a light footprint as Republican campaigns are careful in how they talk about him. Polls show Trump’s approval ratings have dropped since he took office again, even as he is still popular among many loyal supporters GOP candidates need to turn out when he is not on the ballot. Some Trump allies are skeptical that the base that came out for Trump in presidential elections will be there Tuesday.
Democrats across the 2025 battleground states have made Trump central to their message, betting that anger and disappointment over his second term will help turn around their party’s fortunes this November and beyond. Republican nominees have praised Trump effusively, but their ads are far less likely to mention Trump as they fight for independent voters.
In Virginia, where Trump’s firing of federal workers hit especially hard, close to half of the Democratic ads in the gubernatorial race and 69 percent of Democratic ads in the attorney general’s race mention the president, according to AdImpact data on the general election. None of the Republican ads did, per AdImpact. New Jersey also shows a disparity, although it is less lopsided.
“Sears backs Trump policies that are raising prices for everything,” says one ad for Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic nominee for governor in Virginia.
Trump has become more vocal about the races in the final stretch, urging his followers on Truth Social to “VOTE REPUBLICAN.” This week he held a telerally with Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R).
But he but has stayed notably distant from the GOP nominee to replace Youngkin, Earle-Sears. The president snubbed Earle-Sears when he visited Norfolk a few weeks ago for a speech to the military — never mentioning the candidate’s name even as she sat in the front of the crowd.
The Earle-Sears team still talks with the Trump team multiple times per week and keeps them updated on the race, according to a person familiar with the campaign. Pressed about Earle-Sears more recently by reporters, Trump said “the Republican candidate is very good” and “should win because the Democrat candidate’s a disaster.”
Miyares, the only statewide Virginia candidate endorsed by Trump, got a boost last month after revelations that his opponent, Democrat Jay Jones, once mused over text about killing a GOP lawmaker. Trump called the comments “SICK.”
While Virginia is traditionally the closest-watched bellwether the year after a presidential election, blue-leaning New Jersey has been a source of more optimism for the GOP this cycle. New Jersey shifted toward Trump last year more than any other state besides New York, and Ciattarelli, the GOP gubernatorial nominee, came within three points of victory four years ago.
Republicans are more bullish about New Jersey than Virginia this year because of “the quality of the candidate,” said John McLaughlin, a longtime pollster for Trump. He suggested Democrats are more motivated across the board: “There’s a lot more incentive to come out because you’re upset about having lost the previous year.”
“The Trump voters, right now, are complacent,” he said.
